I don't want to sound like Cassandra here, but fuck it, I certainly feel that way as far as the ad biz is concerned right now. As usual, Wall Street was in melt down mode today. Forget the BDC (Big Dumb Conglomerate) stocks... They are in the tank, and will continue to be so for a long fucking time. It's their clients you should be worrying about. I always look at what are referred to as the "Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse. Namely, Google, Amazon, RIM and the GodStock, Apple. They are all down fucking huge... Which means their agencies can kiss most of their billings goodbye. Even rock solid IBM is way down. As for the auto accounts. Jesus, you must be kidding. Did you see the news today that General Motors is considering selling its Detroit Corporate Headquarters? Next thing you know, we might have to sell the White House to China, that's if it meets the requisite Feng shui specifications!
Fuck that, just give me the price of a pint and a packet of fags!
George,
You can't run a modern economy without banks.
When the .com collapse happened.. it sucked.. I saw all my friends lose their jobs. But the destruction was mostly limited to the tech field.
When this happened... it hit the banks... it's like a fucking Tsunami ripping though the economy.
Companies can't get bridge loans to make payroll (bridge between when the work is done and the client pays).
Companies can't finance new projects.
Companies can't do shit.. they can't even trust their bank accounts anymore... if they have more than 100k in there.. they are screwed if the bank crashes.
And even if they don't have 100k... the FDIC was actually running out of money paying off all these bank crashes. The bailout supposedly increased the credit of the FDIC... but I don't even know if I trust that as much as I used to.
It lost 10% of it's reserves when IndyMAC shut down... God knows what's left by now.
This shit needs to be fixed yesterday... because we're heading into a fucking depression if this keeps up...
Call me crazy.. I don't care.. because I know I am right... it's a simple fact.. you can't run a modern economy without banks.
Posted by: The Founder | October 07, 2008 at 03:41 PM
There was a curious piece of news today. Namely that Wells Fargo is not going to issue any more CDs for a while: they have enough cash. Honest. That was the report.
Somebody actually turning down more liquidity.
It means deflation to me. (CDs pay forward, demand deposits and current accounts don't.)
Maybe someone with the 1-800 Mattress account can reposition their products as safe havens for cash.
On the other hand, with all that liquidity apparently available on a daily baiss, maybe bank stocks are where to go.
Someone told me the that to start an "agency" today, you need to be much more capital intensive than in the past since you need hardware, software, and folks who know how to use them.
Seems you can neither run a modern economy without banks nor a modern agency without them.
Posted by: TOM MESSNER | October 07, 2008 at 04:39 PM
There was a curious piece of news today. Namely that Wells Fargo is not going to issue any more CDs for a while: they have enough cash. Honest. That was the report.
Somebody actually turning down more liquidity.
It means deflation to me. (CDs pay forward, demand deposits and current accounts don't.)
Maybe someone with the 1-800 Mattress account can reposition their products as safe havens for cash.
On the other hand, with all that liquidity apparently available on a daily baiss, maybe bank stocks are where to go.
Someone told me the that to start an "agency" today, you need to be much more capital intensive than in the past since you need hardware, software, and folks who know how to use them.
Seems you can neither run a modern economy without banks nor a modern agency without them.
Posted by: TOM MESSNER | October 07, 2008 at 04:41 PM
Interesting article, too, in Sunday's New York Times.
The guy who had the oversight of Fannie May and Freddie Mac resigned his goverment job to go to....Wachovia as CEO.
I know we all need credit, blah, blah, but let them burn. The sooner it hits bottom, the soonern it will recover. Interfere and it'll take longer - simple.
As for our business. Agree, George. Fucked until 2010, at least.
Posted by: Richard-in-Russia | October 07, 2008 at 06:36 PM
Tom & Richard...
The government never runs out of cash... They just print more. At the rate we're going here, and with what's going to happen to my money, I'm thinking of emigrating to Zimbabwe. Or maybe, Richard, that's your next stop. Sir Martin used to have a shop there, 'til the tabloids found out. As for the 1-800 mattress, you can have the expensive one filled with goose down, or the cheap one filled with $100 bills.
Cheers/George
Posted by: George Parker | October 07, 2008 at 09:20 PM
You could change the name Zimbabwe to Rhodesia. That could get some fresh capital in.
You know, though, that deflation's taken over because gold stocks are down while the price of gold is up.
My teeth are more valuable than ever.
Posted by: TOM MESSNER | October 07, 2008 at 10:27 PM
don't advertise that, tom, people are on their way over to your house now with pliers!
anyone out there read "the road" by cormac mcarthy? good, pre-apocalypse reading.. then use it for kindling this winter...
Posted by: the lower depths | October 08, 2008 at 05:14 AM
Things must be bad. I only get three Amex OPEN card offers a week, down from about five.
Posted by: Auntie Christ | October 08, 2008 at 06:02 AM
give it a few weeks, auntie, Amex will soon be asking you for a credit referral when they apply for a Visa card...
Posted by: the lower depths | October 08, 2008 at 06:43 PM